Growth plan for The Feed, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
The Feed was founded in 2016 and leads its home page with free shipping on fuel, hydration and gear. My plan puts $24,000 of tests behind one number, a $19.20 target CAC, and kills losers early.
- Target CAC
- $19.20
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $19.20 CAC on a $2.99 bar or a $120.00 bundle
The number to protect is a $19.20 target CAC. It is 0.6 of the $32.00 ceiling, built from a $40 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order. Every test, creator and budget move is judged against that single line.
Protect
Target CAC: $19.20 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $40 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $32.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $32.00 = $19.20. Across the ranges: $0.68 to $1,552.49.
Three moves
- Kill any ad that cannot get near $19.20 after its test spend.
- Scale only what already holds the line, with budget drawn from the $100,000.
- Test creators on the $1.99 stick and the $2.99 bar first, where a first order costs least.
- year The Feed was founded
- 2016
- Published
- variants of the Instant Hydration electrolyte mix
- 24
- Published
- off a first order when truefuels launches
- 20%
- Published
02 Variety
Each ad carries one product: from $1.99 sticks to $249.00 slides
Each ad concept has to carry one product, one reason to buy and one hook, from the $1.99 Instant Hydration stick to the $49.99 HYROX Pack marked down from $69.39. One variable per test, so a loss tells us which part failed.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Free Shipping on all orders | Free Shipping on all orders | 6 |
| 20% off your first order | Sign up and Save 20% on your first order when truefuels launches at The Feed. | 2 |
| A bar that tastes like cheating | a soft, marshmallowy bite with flavors that taste like cheating | 2 |
| Hydration at 10 calories | At 10 calories a stick, it slots into a training day or a normal Tuesday | 2 |
| One-ingredient creatine | 5 grams of micronized creatine monohydrate per scoop and nothing else. | 2 |
| No powder, no shaker | There's no powder to measure and no shaker bottle to pack, only a twist-off cap. | 2 |
| Plant protein, no dairy | delivering 21 grams of protein per scoop without any dairy | 2 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Free shipping is contiguous-USA only, and that is a risk to price in
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free shipping is valid only in the contiguous USA; ads reach buyers it excludes | Med | Med | Me | Ads geo-targeted to the contiguous USA from the first launch; any APO or PO Box click is cut |
| Low-priced entry items, like a $1.99 stick, can lose money on the first order | Med | High | Me | Pause any ad above the $19.20 guard line once its test spend is used |
| Orders under 1lb ship with USPS and arrive 1 to 2 days later than standard | Med | Low | Your team | Delivery estimate on each landing page matches the one shown at checkout |
| Health wording on supplements drifts past the brand's own copy | Med | High | Both | Every creator script matches the claims sheet before it goes live |
| Creators join slower than two a week and the video count falls behind | Med | Med | Me | Fewer than 14 videos in the first live week: swap creators |
| Purchase events are not tracked cleanly, so CAC cannot be read | Med | High | Your team | Purchase event matches store orders before any spend scales |
| Repeat orders are a guess: the $32.00 ceiling falls if buyers do not return | Med | High | Both | Cohort payback read monthly; ceiling reset to the repeat orders actually seen |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $32.00 because repeat orders are a guess, not a fact
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $40 (range $1.30–$1,149.99) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $32.00 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $19.20 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $40 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $32.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $32.00 = $19.20. Across the ranges: $0.68 to $1,552.49.
Range across the assumptions: $1 to $1,552.
The $40 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are my guesses, not facts about The Feed. The $32.00 ceiling and $19.20 guard line follow from them, and week one replaces all three with your numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000 in total, 12 ads a week to start
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $19 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $19 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $19 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $19 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $19 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $19 |
Weeks one and two run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week, $6,000 cumulative. Weeks three and four run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week, $14,000 cumulative. Weeks five and six run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Six weeks, $24,000 of tests.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Volume: 80 concepts is the bet, hit rate is a guess
More concepts mean more winners. At 20 concepts the plan guesses 2 winners and $18,000 added; at 80 concepts, 8 winners and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are both guesses until week six.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
$100,000 split across four jobs, not one Meta bucket
- Creative tests on Meta: bars, electrolytes, creatine
- $45,000
- 45%
- Scaling winners that hold the $19.20 line
- $25,000
- 25%
- Creator pay and creator videos
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and tracking fixes
- $10,000
- 10%
Split of the $100,000 budget; most goes to tests and creators until winners hold the $19.20 line, then scaling takes more.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first for the $2.99 bar; other channels open on proof
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one, with 12 ads | Cheap entry items like the $2.99 Built Puff bar suit short video tests. |
| TikTok | Once two creators are live and posting | Athlete creators can show Instant Hydration sticks in use, at $1.99 each. |
| Instagram Reels | When a Meta winner holds $19.20 after its test spend | The same vertical video is reused, so nothing new has to be made. |
| Google Shopping | After tracking is clean and the first winners are known | Shoppers searching for creatine already want to buy; SFH Creatine is $25.99. |
| Email and subscription | When first-order buyers exist to bring back | Repeat orders carry the $32.00 ceiling; The Feed already offers a subscription option. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
A $40 order at 40% margin pays back only after a repeat order
Payback is the real constraint. At a $10 CAC the first order pays back with $22.00 left. At $20 it needs repeat orders and leaves $12.00. At $35 and $45 it never pays back: stop, at −$3.00 and −$13.00. That is why one number is protected.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $16.00, $32.00.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $16.00 | $32.00 | $22.00 | First order |
| $20 | $16.00 | $32.00 | $12.00 | After repeat orders |
| $35 | $16.00 | $32.00 | −$3.00 | Never: stop |
| $45 | $16.00 | $32.00 | −$13.00 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $32.00 − $10 = $22.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $20: $32.00 − $20 = $12.00 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $35: $32.00 − $35 = −$3.00 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $45: $32.00 − $45 = −$13.00 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: I run ads and creators; I do not run your catalog
Covers
- Meta ad tests, creative briefs and daily CAC reporting
- Creator sourcing, briefs and pay for the roster of 10
- Landing pages built for each winning concept
- A claims sheet drawn from your own product copy
Doesn’t
- Your catalog, pricing and shipping terms
- Implementing the purchase event on your site
- Fulfilment and customer service
- Any health claim beyond the brand's own wording
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Two creators live, 14 videos posted, 12 ads running and purchase events match store orders | Events do not match orders, or no creator is live |
| Day 30 | At least one ad holds the $19.20 target after its test spend, with $14,000 of tests cumulative | No ad is near $19.20 after four weeks of tests |
| Day 60 | Blended CAC at or under $19.20 while spend rises beyond the $24,000 of tests | CAC above the $32.00 ceiling in any week of scaling |
| Day 90 | CAC holds at $19.20 as spend scales, and cohort payback shows repeat orders | Cohort payback shows no repeat orders: reset the $32.00 ceiling or stop |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creators | Athlete products: gels, chews, bars, HYROX Pack at $49.99 | A roster and briefs; none live yet | 1st |
| creative | Lifestyle images for fuel, hydration and gear on the home page | Hooks and video ads built for first-order tests | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Product copy with doses, e.g. SFH Creatine 5 grams per scoop | One sheet of approved lines per product | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Product pages with variants: 24 electrolyte, 18 bar | Pages built for one ad concept each | 2nd |
| reporting | Free shipping and subscription offers to tag in orders | Purchase event and a daily CAC view | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 year The Feed was founded | https://thefeed.com/ | Fact |
| 24 variants of the Instant Hydration electrolyte mix | https://thefeed.com/products/instant-hydration-premium-electrolyte-mix | Fact |
| 20% off a first order when truefuels launches | https://thefeed.com/products/truefuels-coming-soon | Fact |
| Product prices $1.30–$1,149.99 | product prices in the site product data (159 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $40 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $19.20 target CAC | 0.6 of the $32.00 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $32.00 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I agree the claims sheet with your team, spec the purchase event, brief the first two creators and launch 12 ads with $3,000 of test spend. By the end I send the first daily CAC against $19.20.
